Ofsted’s Latest Data: What It Says About Fostering Supply and Demand

Key numbers at a glance (year to 31 March 2024)

• Fostering households: 42,615 (down from 43,405 in 2023; steady decline since 2021).
• Approved mainstream foster carers: 57,065 (-4% year-on-year).
• Applications received: 8,485 (up slightly from ~8,010 last year). Approvals completed in-year: 1,815; withdrawn: 3,670.
• Joiners vs leavers: 4,055 households joined; 4,820 left → net loss of 765 households.
• Approved places: 70,465 (-3% YOY). Filled place rate: ~60% in LAs and ~62% in IFAs; vacant places: 16%.
• Family & friends (kinship) fostering: now 21% of all fostering households; 50% of new approvals.
• Children looked after (all settings): 83,630 in England (stable YOY after long rise).

The headline: churn is outpacing growth

Ofsted’s annual fostering dataset confirms what many services have felt for years: even as enquiries and applications edge up, the system is still losing more fostering households than it gains. In 2023–24, agencies received 8,485 applications, but only 1,815 were approved within the year; two-thirds of completed applications were withdrawn (mostly by applicants), and overall there was a net loss of 765 households. That’s a modest improvement on the previous year’s net loss, but it still shrinks capacity at a time when demand hasn’t fallen.

Why does this matter? Because fostering capacity isn’t just a number. Every household that deregisters often takes multiple approved places with it, and the sector then spends time and money to retrain new carers to replace experienced ones—time children don’t have.

Demand hasn’t gone away—needs are changing

The Department for Education’s official count shows 83,630 children were looked after on 31 March 2024, broadly flat year-on-year but still near record levels after a decade-long rise. Stability at the headline level masks greater complexity: more teenagers, more mental-health need, more multi-agency plans, and continuing pressure from unaccompanied asylum-seeking children (UASC) in some regions. Parliamentary scrutiny this year explicitly noted “significant and continuing shortages of… foster carers,” with sufficiency challenges often about suitability and location rather than sheer national totals.

In short: the right home, in the right place, at the right time remains hard to find—especially for teens, sibling groups, UASC, and children with complex needs.

The vacancy paradox: why “spare places” don’t always mean availability

At first glance, Ofsted’s headline that 16% of approved places are vacant, and only ~60–62% are filled, suggests spare capacity. But practitioners know many “vacant” places are not suitable for the referrals arriving—due to age/sex matching, risk profiles, carer preferences, or because the place is temporarily “not available” (for example during a respite arrangement or while a carer takes a break). Ofsted’s data spells this out: there are filled, vacant, and not available categories, and the latter can be significant in a given year. This is why local placement teams can be turning down dozens of referrals daily while the spreadsheet still shows “vacancies.”

For families in Kent, Hounslow, Ealing, Bromley and the South-East, the implication is practical: a spare bed isn’t the same as a match. Services need more carers approved for the profiles they actually receive—especially carers able to take older children, siblings, or placements on an emergency basis.

The shape of the market is shifting

Three structural trends stand out:

1) Mainstream LA households keep falling; IFA growth has also slowed.
Over 2020–24, mainstream LA households fell 14%, and IFA households have been declining since 2022. IFAs still account for 44% of mainstream households, and 48% of filled mainstream places, underscoring their ongoing role in sufficiency.

2) Kinship is rising fast.
Family & friends fostering now makes up around a fifth of all fostering households, and half of new approvals. That reflects policy intent to keep children within their networks when safe—but it also introduces higher turnover, because kinship approvals are often child-specific and time-limited.

3) Residential costs are surging—when fostering isn’t available.
Recent NAO-linked reporting shows the average residential placement cost has climbed to roughly £318,000 per child per year, intensifying pressure on local authority budgets. Shortfalls in suitable fostering drive some of this spend, as councils resort to residential or distant placements.

Recruitment is rising—but throughput is the choke-point

Ofsted records more applications this year but steady approval rates; two-thirds of completed applications are withdrawn. That points to friction in the journey from enquiry to approval—delays, unclear expectations, and life events that nudge applicants to pause.

The Department for Education’s Recruitment Support Hubs (“Foster with…”) aim to fix this by giving regions a single front door for enquiries and standardising processes and terms. Hubs in the North East, South East, Lancashire/Cumbria and others are live; evidence to Parliament suggests around 10 hubs involving ~96 local authorities have launched, with expectations of faster response times and better conversion.

Bottom line: getting from click to panel faster—and with fewer drop-offs—is the quickest lever to slow the capacity slide.

Retention is the make-or-break

You cannot recruit your way out of sufficiency issues if experienced carers keep leaving. Ofsted’s churn data shows 4,820 deregistrations in the year, with LA deregistering carers having served ~8 years on average (5.5 years in IFAs). Sector evidence repeatedly cites pay, support, and respect as the three levers that decide whether carers stay.

What works?

• Financial clarity: Transparent allowance + fee packages that reflect age/complexity, mileage/contact, birthdays/holidays, and realistic retainer policies.
• Practical support: Out-of-hours help, Mockingbird peer constellations, high-quality training, and fast access to CAMHS/therapeutic input reduce placement disruptions—and stress.
• Professional respect: Inclusion at meetings, timely information in referrals, and proportionate approaches during allegations/standards of care processes.

Kinship: big policy bet, real-world effects

The National Kinship Care Strategy (Dec 2023) set out a path to pilot kinship allowances equivalent to the national minimum fostering allowance. In June 2025, the DfE opened applications for up to 10 local authorities to run the Kinship Allowance Pilot, now moving through selection. For fostering supply, this matters in two ways: it supports family placements that may otherwise escalate into fostering or residential care, and it rebalances demand on mainstream foster carers by keeping some children safely within kin networks.

Regional picture: where the needle moved

Ofsted shows small regional swings. For 2023–24, East of England is the outlier with a 1% increase in total fostering households; IFA households nudged up in East of England (5%) and East Midlands (4%), and London saw a 1% IFA increase, though LA declines outweighed gains in most regions. For South-East areas such as Kent, and West London boroughs like Hounslow, the read-across is clear: pipeline improvements (hubs, faster assessments, better conversion) have to outpace deregistrations to keep local children close to home.

What this means for local readers (Kent, Hounslow and nearby)

For prospective carers:

• If you can consider teens, siblings, or emergency/short-term care, you’re addressing the hardest-to-place profiles—the ones creating pressure. Expect enhanced support (training, supervision, peer networks) and additional fees in many areas.
• Kinship carers in participating pilot areas may see new allowances: if you’re caring (or could care) for a related child under an SGO/CAO, watch local announcements.

For services and agencies:

• Remove friction from the journey: 24-hour enquiry responses, front-loaded training, early Form F evidence gathering, and panel scheduling discipline. The hubs model is designed for exactly this.
• Protect your core: invest in retention—particularly in carers with 3+ years’ experience—and expand Mockingbird constellations where feasible.
• Match the market: approve more carers for older age bands, larger households, and P&C (parent & child) where local data shows demand spikes. Ofsted notes a higher share of IFA households approved for 3+ children—a clue to where flexibility lives today.

What to watch next (and why it matters)

1. Recruitment Support Hubs — Year-2 data:
   Look for published conversion metrics (enquiry ➜ application ➜ approval), response times, and cost per approval by region. If they improve throughput, the net loss should narrow.
2. Kinship Allowance Pilot rollout:
   Which 10 LAs are selected, how rates track the National Minimum Allowance, and what that does to entry routes for children at edge of care. Expect evaluation findings to shape 2026+ policy.
3. 2025/26 allowance uplifts:
   Annual allowance updates affect recruitment/retention. Watch for local top-ups across London/South East where living costs bite. (We’ll cover new rates as they land.)
4. Residential market pressure:
   If residential costs continue climbing, councils have even stronger incentives to grow fostering capacity—especially for complex profiles where residential is currently the default.

The takeaway

• Supply is shrinking slowly, not collapsing—but the mix is wrong for today’s demand.
• Applications are up but conversion and retention are the bottlenecks.
• Kinship growth is real and helpful, but brings higher turnover and can’t replace mainstream capacity for teens/siblings/high-needs children.
• Local action—hubs, faster approvals, retention support, and strategic approvals for specific need profiles—can turn the curve.

For readers in Kent, Hounslow, and the South-East, the opportunity is immediate: if you’ve thought about fostering—especially for teenagers or siblings—now is the moment where you’ll make the biggest difference.